By 2012, 2.8% of workforce to be foreign professionals;

Most in health, education or government services.

A record number of highly skilled migrant workers such as nurses and teachers will enter Britain over the next four years, contributing an estimated £77bn to the country's economy, according to new research by an economic thinktank.

The study, compiled by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) for a global recruitment consultancy, Harvey Nash, concludes that skilled migrants fill skills shortages and without them the country's international competitiveness could suffer. It estimates that these migrants, the majority of whom work in education, health and government services, already account for 2.5% of the country's workforce and generate more than £36bn for the economy in what they produce.

However, the report, entitled Future Flows, forecasts that this will rise to 2.8% and £46bn in 2012, based on economic trends and predicted demands for professionals such as nurses and IT specialists. The CEBR report forecasts that there will be 812,000 such migrants in the UK by 2012, an increase of 14% on the 715,000 in 2007.

It estimates that spending on goods and services by skilled migrants already in the UK stands at £8.4bn and predicts this will rise to £13bn in 2012. This is in addition to a further £18bn in other indirect support they supply to the UK economy.

Albert Ellis, chief executive at Harvey Nash, said: "Skills are critical to the UK economy, but critically lacking in our current workforce. Far from undermining the UK labour market, migration is vital to future economic stability, helping to fill in gaps created by older and under-skilled workforces and make an important economic contribution.

"Businesses need to embrace skilled migration, recruit from wider social groups as well as offer flexible and rewarding workplace practices for homegrown talents, in order to safeguard their long-term and global competitiveness."

The CEBR defines highly skilled talent as managers, senior officials and those involved in professional, associate professional and technical occupations.

Over the last 10 years, the number of highly skilled migrants entering Britain has more than doubled. Numbers fell in 2001 after the dotcom crash, but rose again in 2004 with the accession of 10 new EU member states, along with faster economic growth. The majority currently come from the EU, and other significant flows come from Asia and Africa.

The CEBR research predicts that the demand for trained nurses will keep 31.2% of highly skilled migrants - the biggest single group - working in the education, health and government services sector. However, it said that the IT, telecommunications and transport sectors would see an extra 19,000 skilled migrant workers between now and 2012 as demand rises for software and e-commerce specialists. Skilled migrant labour is also expected to grow by 44% in the utilities sector. The total skilled migrant workforce is estimated to indirectly support approximately 649,000 jobs.

London has and will continue to have the largest concentration, about 45%, of the skilled migrant workforce. In 2012 the report estimates that 365,000 skilled migrants will live in the capital, with a further 100,000 in the south-east and 49,000 in the east of England.

Statistics from the Home Office suggest that before the accession of the 10 new EU member states, around 35% of migrants would return home after their first year. However, the report states that the actual figure is much higher: about 60%.

Last year, a joint Treasury, Home Office and Department for Work and Pensions study of the economic impact of all migrants found that they added around £6bn to the UK economy in 2006.

Story from Karen McVeigh, guardian.co.uk © Guardian News and Media Limited 2008

Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/mar/25/immigration.immigrationpolicy